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Colliers International has just released their February commercial property Research Report for New Zealand and according to Alan McMahon, Director of research and consulting at Colliers International, even in a small, remote country there is no escaping the recessionary consequences of the credit crisis and the US/European financial services meltdown that has followed. Just as economic events in the US illustrate the economic effects we can expect to experience, so current events in their property markets can provide early warning signals for our markets.

Research just published by Colliers International in the US notes that around 3% negative office absorption is likely from peak to trough in this recession, in line with the level of assumed economic contraction. A 3% contraction there equates to over 9,000,000m². Across the US, an average of 5.9% of employees are (or were until recently) employed in the financial services sector. Notably that number is around 10% of all employees in Manhattan and San Francisco where the office markets have been particularly hard hit. The overall national vacancy is expected to rise to 20% and downtown office rents to shrink by 25%.

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