House price expectations dip but remain positive overall

Dip comes ahead of overseas investment changes next month


Median house price rise expectations have dipped ahead of the Overseas Investment Amendment Act coming into force next month, the latest Colliers International survey shows.

The latest quarterly Residential Property Market Outlook Survey, released today, found the number of respondents expecting median prices in New Zealand to rise over the next 12 months still outweigh those who expect a decline.

However, the result of a net positive 26 per cent this quarter is down from a net positive 36 per cent recorded three months ago.

Chris Dibble, Director of Research and Communications at Colliers International, says the lower level of positivity this quarter seems to surround Overseas Investment Amendment Act changes.

“Almost half of our survey respondents were pessimistic about the market impact when discussing the new Overseas Investment Amendment Act which comes into force on October 22.

“Development activity and lower sales volumes also remain front of mind for survey respondents.”

Despite the lower recorded sales activity in Auckland, there is an overall expectation that prices will increase. An overall net positive 16 per cent of respondents expect the median price to increase over the next 12 months.

The highest expectation of house price growth is Queenstown, followed by Tauranga/Mt Maunganui and Wellington.

Dunedin and Whangarei were the only two locations to record an increase in the net per cent of respondents expecting the median price to increase over the next 12 months.

In the commercial property sector, investors are cautious but confident.

The latest quarterly Commercial Property Investor Confidence Survey, which tracks sentiment rather than price expectations, shows overall confidence is at a net positive 21 per cent (optimists minus pessimists). That is down slightly from 23 per cent recorded three months ago.

Nine out of 12 regions recorded a net positive confidence score.

Wellington’s investor confidence, which has been building since late 2013 and recently outpaced Auckland for the first time in nine years, remains ever so slightly above Auckland’s investor confidence levels.

Queenstown and Tauranga/Mt Maunganui have taken the top two spots for the ninth consecutive quarter. Hamilton remains in third spot, just in front of Wellington and Auckland.

“Momentum looks to be gathering for Christchurch’s industrial sector with a net positive 16 per cent, the highest result in 18 months,” Dibble says.

“Despite holding the lowest net investor confidence score of all three sectors, retail was the only sector to increase in all three main centres this survey.”

The three biggest risks and trends for commercial property in the next 12 months, as identified by survey respondents, are the economic and political environment, costs and business confidence.

The residential survey drew on 6,634 responses while the commercial survey drew on 2,436 responses.

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Chris Dibble

Director | Research & Communications

Auckland CBD

Chris Dibble oversees the delivery of award-winning research reports, PR and Communications for Colliers International New Zealand. With over 13 years of experience and university qualifications in economics, geography, marketing and property, Chris has a  multi-disciplinary approach that assists a broad range of clients in their strategic decision making. Chris is a regular presenter and market commentator with an extensive network of media contacts to discuss the latest insights on current and future property trends. Chris also works with in-house and external writers to curate an audience-focused content delivery strategy for Colliers.

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