Shifting down a gear, for now
Colliers’ quarterly confidence survey asks commercial property market participants about their views on the outlook for commercial property investment over the next 12 months across New Zealand. The survey was conducted from 4th March to 12th March 2020.
- Investor confidence has shifted down from its record highs over the past few years. A net positive 7% (optimists minus pessimists) of respondents expected investment conditions to get better over the next 12 months. This is down from 27% in the previous quarter.
- While the number of pessimists increased slightly, the reduction in the net positive result is due to a reduction in the number of respondents now expecting similar conditions rather than better conditions over the next 12 months.
Mt Maunganui/Tauranga has taken the top spot for the fourth consecutive quarter, followed by Hamilton that enters the top two position for the first time since the survey began in June 2009.
- Queenstown was knocked out of the top two for the first time since the December 2013 quarter, securing third place. Wellington and Dunedin achieved fourth equal.
- In Auckland, respondents’ confidence was highest in the industrial sector (48%), followed by the office sector (21%). Wellington respondents’ confidence was equally high for the office and industrial sectors (29%).
- When asked what could have the biggest positive impact on the market in 2020, the most common response was low interest rates for our December 2019 and March 2019 surveys.
When asked last quarter what could have the biggest negative impact on the market in 2020, the most common response included tightening in bank lending. This survey, over two-thirds of respondents indicated COVID-19 implications.
- There were 1,456 responses utilised to construct the survey results.