Residential Property Market Outlook Survey Quarter 1 2020

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Residential Property Market Outlook Survey Q1 2020 1536 x 1040

Reasonable Expectations

Colliers’ quarterly market outlook survey asks residential property market participants if the median house price will stay the same, decrease, increase by less than 5%, or increase by more than 5% over the next 12 months across New Zealand. 

Highlights of our March 2020 quarter Residential Property Market Outlook Survey:

  •  Confidence in the residential property market reduced slightly from the previous quarter, but remains well above results recorded in late 2018 and the first half of 2019.
  • A net positive* 34% of respondents expected the median price to increase in the next 12 months, down from a net positive 41% recorded in the December 2019 quarter survey.
  • For the first time since the September 2016 quarter, Tauranga/Mt Maunganui achieved first place with a net positive 47%. Confidence in Wellington’s residential market continues, pushing it into second place with a net positive 45%.
  • Queenstown’s net positive score of 43% pushes it into third place for the first time since the September 2016 quarter.
  • Median price expectations in Auckland achieved a net positive 39%, which is down from 49% in the December 2019 quarter, but well above the negative 10% recorded in the March 2019 quarter.
  • Christchurch was the only location between the latest survey periods where a higher percentage of respondents expected house prices to increase in the next 12 months.
  • When asked in the December 2019 and March 2020 quarterly surveys what could have the biggest positive impact on the market in 2020, the most common response was low interest rates.
  • When asked what could have the biggest negative impact on the market in 2020, the most common response in the December 2019 survey was election uncertainty. This survey, just under two-thirds of respondents answered COVID-19.
  • A total of 4,449 responses were utilised to construct this survey.
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Residential Property Market Outlook Survey Quarter 1 2020

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Chris Dibble

National Director | Colliers Partnerships, Research & Communications

Auckland CBD

My Colliers Partnership priorities focus on support initiatives that drive collaboration, best practice learning, cost efficiencies and growth opportunities across the wider Colliers International New Zealand franchise network. I also oversee the collaboration and delivery of award-winning research reports and communications for Colliers. With over 13 years of experience and university qualifications in economics, geography, marketing and property. I have a multi-disciplinary approach that assists a broad range of clients and internal stakeholders. I am a regular presenter and market commentator, often discussing the latest insights on current and future property trends. I also work with in-house and external writers to curate an audience-focused content delivery strategy for Colliers.

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