Sentiment higher than pre-election levels, survey shows
Confidence in New Zealand’s residential property market is now higher than before last year’s election, with house price increases expected in every market surveyed.
Colliers International’s latest quarterly Residential Property Market Outlook Survey found overall sentiment in the residential property market has continued to track upwards this year, gaining 8 percentage points in the last quarter.
This follows an increase of 13 percentage points in the previous quarter.
A net positive 36 per cent of respondents now expect median house prices to increase over the next 12 months, up from a net positive 28 per cent three months ago, and 15 per cent six months ago.
Colliers International Research and Consulting National Director Alan McMahon says sentiment is now higher than the net positive 31 per cent recorded prior to the election on 23 September 2017.
“While many respondents expect the market to plateau eventually, we’re still seeing an overwhelmingly positive picture for residential prices throughout the country,” he says.
The highest expectations of house price rises were recorded in Queenstown, Tauranga/Mt Maunganui and Hamilton.
In Auckland, respondents expect prices for both new and existing apartments, terraced and detached houses will increase. That same sentiment is repeated in the Wellington and Queenstown markets.
“The key comment made by respondents was that tightening credit controls, reduced immigration and uncertainty around interest rates will cause prices to plateau, but not yet,” McMahon says.
Meanwhile, confidence in the commercial property market has dipped slightly after a rebound the previous quarter.
Colliers International’s latest quarterly Commercial Property Investor Confidence Survey found overall confidence has dropped by 2 percentage points to a net positive 23 per cent.
It comes after confidence grew by 7 percentage points in the previous quarter to its highest point since December 2016.
McMahon says nine out of the 12 regions surveyed recorded a net positive score, meaning there are more optimistic respondents than pessimists.
“In the main centres, confidence in the retail and office sectors increased in Wellington, but fell in Auckland and Christchurch.
“Confidence in the industrial sector increased in Christchurch and Wellington, but dipped in Auckland.”
Queenstown and Tauranga/Mt Maunganui have taken the top two spots yet again for the eighth consecutive quarter, while Hamilton has once again beaten Auckland and Wellington for the third spot.
McMahon says the main concern in comments made by respondents is still a level of uncertainty around new government policies.
The residential survey drew on 5,734 responses while the commercial survey drew on 2,367 responses.
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