Colliers survey finds Kiwis more positive on house prices after capital gains tax rejection

Colliers International’s latest quarterly Residential Property Market Outlook Survey results released


More than half of New Zealanders surveyed believe house prices will be impacted by the coalition government’s dismissal of a capital gains tax, with most of them expecting prices to increase.

That’s one of the key findings of Colliers International’s latest quarterly Residential Property Market Outlook Survey. 

The survey asked respondents if the government’s rejection of the Tax Working Group’s recommendation to implement a capital gains tax would influence residential property prices.

A 52 per cent majority responded yes, while 34 per cent responded no. The remaining 14 per cent were unsure.

Chris Dibble, Research and Communications Director at Colliers International, says 84 per cent of respondents who stated that prices would be influenced expect them to increase. 

“Now that the coalition government has rejected the tax in this or any future term, sentiment is gaining positivity,” Dibble says.

“The latest survey shows overall expectations for median prices have stabilised at a net positive 16 per cent, up slightly from 15 per cent in the March 2019 quarter.
“This is the first result since the March 2018 survey that the national net positive result has not decreased.”

The survey shows respondents expecting median prices to rise over the next 12 months still outweigh those who expect a decline. 

Ten of the 13 regions monitored recorded a higher net percentage result than the previous quarterly survey.

Queenstown took out first place for the location respondents expect higher median sale prices over the next 12 months.

Fred Bramwell, Residential Sales Director at Colliers Queenstown, says there has been a shift in residential market dynamics, but overall the market remains steady.

“Over the next 12 to 18 months we anticipate a period of value consolidation and a realignment towards a buyers’ market, however currently, well priced and presented properties are continuing to attract strong interest and multiple offers.

“There is still plenty of demand in the market driven by tourism, the area’s growing population and the ongoing construction boom.”

Tauranga/Mt Maunganui remains in second place for residential price sentiment, while Wellington has held onto third place.

In Auckland, a lower proportion of respondents expect median prices to decrease over the next year compared with the last survey.

Median price expectations in Rotorua overall saw the greatest improvement in the latest survey, with a net positive 21 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent in the previous survey.

A total of 9,614 responses were utilised to construct the survey.

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